Business tendency in manufacturing, construction, trade and services - October 2023

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In October the assessments of general business climate indicator in most of presented kinds of activities are at a slightly lower or similar level as compared to the ones presented in September. However, a different trend can be observed in seasonally adjusted data, where in most of areas the indicator is higher than last month. In all areas, except for retail trade, the indicator is below the long-term mean[1]. In majority of the areas, month-to-month level of "diagnostic" components remains unchanged, whereas "forecasting" ones do not change or deteriorate

Only entities from financial and insurance activities section (plus 16.4) as well as information and communication section (plus 12.1) assess business tendency as positive[1], however below the long-term mean (plus 25.7 and plus 18.1 respectively). The most pessimistic assessments are made by entities from manufacturing section (minus 12.9) along with construction section (minus 10.4).

In the current month – answers provided between 1st and 10th of each month – supplementary set of questions has been added to the survey. This particular set aims to additionally diagnose the impact of war in Ukraine on business tendency and raises the issue of price developments (results in table 2).

[1] By the phrase „positive” (positive value of the indicator) we consider a situation when percentage of entrepreneurs expecting improvement of their entities’ economic situation in the next three months or observing such an improvement outweighs percentage of entrepreneurs expecting its deterioration.

[1] Long-term mean (arithmetic mean for each general business climate indicator) covers time series since 2000, apart from services (since 2003) and wholesale trade (since 2011).

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