Business tendency in manufacturing, construction, trade and services - December 2023

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In December the assessments of general business climate indicator in all of presented kinds of activities (apart from accommodation and food service activities section) are at a similar or lower level as compared to the ones presented in November. In the case of seasonally adjusted data, majority of these kinds of activities assess it similarly to the ones noted in the previous month. In all areas, except for retail trade, the indicator is below the long-term mean[1]. In most of areas, month-to-month level of "diagnostic" components does not change, whereas "forecasting" ones deteriorate.

Only entities from financial and insurance activities section (plus 18.9) as well as information and communication section (plus 12.1) assess business tendency as positive[2], however below the long-term mean (plus 25.6 and plus 18.0 respectively). The most pessimistic assessments are made by entities from manufacturing section (minus 14.4) along with construction section (minus 13.2).

In the current month – answers provided between 1st and 10th of each month – supplementary set of questions has been added to the survey. This particular set aims to additionally diagnose the impact of war in Ukraine on business tendency and raises the issue of labour market (results in table 2).

[1] Long-term mean (arithmetic mean for each general business climate indicator) covers time series since 2000, apart from services (since 2003) and wholesale trade (since 2011).

[2] By the phrase „positive” (positive value of the indicator) we consider a situation when percentage of entrepreneurs expecting improvement of their entities’ economic situation in the next three months or observing such an improvement outweighs percentage of entrepreneurs expecting its deterioration.

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