Population projection 2023–2060

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Date of publication: 31.08.2023

This publication includes the assumptions and analysis of the expected trends of changes of demographic processes: fertility, mortality and migration for permanent residence, as well as the results of the population projection until 2060, prepared on the basis of chosen assumptions and variants.

Three scenarios of expected changes of Polish population between 2023 and 2060 have been prepared. In accordance with the recommendations of the UN (contained in the document Recommendations on Communicating Population Projections), the results of alternative scenarios were presented in greater detail, compared to previous editions. This is to emphasize the fact that the results of projections may be affected by a prediction error. Due to the use of the projection in official analyses, the medium scenario, pointed by experts as the most probable, has been declared as the main one. The remaining scenarios demonstrate alternative paths of demographic development that may be observed in the future.

An innovation in the presented projection is its calculation at the powiat level. The method used ensures perfect consistency with country-level results. Therefore, the projections for powiats is no longer a separate analysis, calculated on the basis of the projection for voivodeships, as was the case in previous editions of population projections.

Update 23.11.2023

Statistics Poland presents the "Population projections for gminas 2023-2040", which is an annex to the publication "Population projection for 2023-2060". This publication is a response to the wide interest in the experimental "Population projections for gminas 2017-2030".

For the first time, the projections for gminas has an official status. Its assumptions are identical to those of the projection published in August 2023 and the added files supplement it. When the population projections for individual gminas are aggregated, the results obtained are identical to projections for powiats.