Coincident and leading composite business cycle indicator, business cycle clcock. Series until January 2024

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Date of publication: 02.04.2024
Frequency of publication: quarterly edition


Analysis of business cycles based on complex (synthetic / aggregated) indicators synthetically describing the business cycle fluctuations in the entire economy, carried out as part of the work of experimental statisticsThe coincident (COINC) and leading (LEAD) aggregated business tendency index have been estimated. The coincident (simultaneous) index reflects the current business tendency, while the leading business tendency index shows the future business tendency at a specific time in advance.

The business cycle clock (a graph of business cycle phases) is a tool that facilitates the analysis of the business cycle. It is a graphic presentation of the place of various economic variables (aggregated or simple indices) in the business cycle. Its primary purpose is to illustrate the phenomenon in a mid-term time perspective. The clock is an illustration in the form of a coordinate system.